The chances of getting a knife in CS:GO through case openings are extremely low, with an approximate probability of 0.26% or 1 in 384.5 cases. This means you'd typically need to open hundreds of cases before having a reasonable chance of unboxing a knife.

Understanding the rarity tiers in CS:GO cases is crucial: - Blue (Mil-Spec): 79.92% chance - Purple (Restricted): 15.98% chance - Pink (Classified): 3.2% chance - Red (Covert): 0.64% chance - Gold (Special Items/Knives): 0.26% chance

When you do manage to unbox a knife, there are additional probability factors that determine its specific attributes: - Wear condition (Factory New to Battle-Scarred) - Pattern type (for applicable knives) - StatTrak™ variant (10% chance within the 0.26%)

To put these numbers into perspective, you're more likely to: - Get struck by lightning (1 in 500,000) - Get a royal flush in poker (1 in 649,740) - Get two pairs in poker (1 in 21)

The financial implications are significant. With cases typically costing around $2-3 and keys being $2.50 each, you might spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars before obtaining a knife. Based on probability, you would need to spend approximately $962.50 (385 cases × $2.50 per key) on average to unbox a knife, not including the cost of cases.

If you're specifically looking to obtain a knife, purchasing one directly from the Steam Community Market or third-party marketplaces is generally more cost-effective than trying to unbox one through cases. This way, you can choose exactly what you want and avoid the gambling aspect of case openings.

Remember that case opening is essentially gambling, and the odds are intentionally designed to make profit for Valve. There's no guarantee you'll get a knife even after opening hundreds of cases, as each case opening is an independent event with the same 0.26% probability.

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